variance correction
Bootstrapping with AI/ML-generated labels
Christensen, Timothy, Goncalves, Silvia, Perron, Benoit
AI/ML methods are increasingly used in economics to generate binary variables (or labels) via classification algorithms. When these generated variables are included as covariates in regressions, even small misclassification errors can induce large biases in OLS estimators and invalidate standard inference. We study whether the bootstrap can correct this bias and deliver valid inference. We first show that a seemingly natural fixed-label bootstrap, which generates data using estimated labels but relies on a corrupted version in estimation, is generally invalid unless a strong independence condition between the latent true labels and other covariates holds. We then propose a coupled-label bootstrap that jointly resamples the true and imputed labels, and show it is valid without this condition. Two finite-sample adjustments further improve coverage: a variance correction for uncertainty in estimated misclassification rates and a Hessian rotation for near-singular designs. We illustrate the methods in simulations and apply them to investigate the relationship between wages and remote work status.
Federated Dynamical Low-Rank Training with Global Loss Convergence Guarantees
Schotthรถfer, Steffen, Laiu, M. Paul
In this work, we propose a federated dynamical low-rank training (FeDLRT) scheme to reduce client compute and communication costs - two significant performance bottlenecks in horizontal federated learning. Our method builds upon dynamical low-rank splitting schemes for manifold-constrained optimization to create a global low-rank basis of network weights, which enables client training on a small coefficient matrix. A consistent global low-rank basis allows us to incorporate a variance correction scheme and prove global loss descent and convergence to a stationary point. Dynamic augmentation and truncation of the low-rank bases automatically optimizes computing and communication resource utilization. We demonstrate the efficiency of FeDLRT in an array of computer vision benchmarks and show a reduction of client compute and communication costs by up to an order of magnitude with minimal impacts on global accuracy.
Vanishing Variance Problem in Fully Decentralized Neural-Network Systems
Tian, Yongding, Al-Ars, Zaid, Kitsak, Maksim, Hofstee, Peter
Federated learning and gossip learning are emerging methodologies designed to mitigate data privacy concerns by retaining training data on client devices and exclusively sharing locally-trained machine learning (ML) models with others. The primary distinction between the two lies in their approach to model aggregation: federated learning employs a centralized parameter server, whereas gossip learning adopts a fully decentralized mechanism, enabling direct model exchanges among nodes. This decentralized nature often positions gossip learning as less efficient compared to federated learning. Both methodologies involve a critical step: computing a representation of received ML models and integrating this representation into the existing model. Conventionally, this representation is derived by averaging the received models, exemplified by the FedAVG algorithm. Our findings suggest that this averaging approach inherently introduces a potential delay in model convergence. We identify the underlying cause and refer to it as the "vanishing variance" problem, where averaging across uncorrelated ML models undermines the optimal variance established by the Xavier weight initialization. Unlike federated learning where the central server ensures model correlation, and unlike traditional gossip learning which circumvents this problem through model partitioning and sampling, our research introduces a variance-corrected model averaging algorithm. This novel algorithm preserves the optimal variance needed during model averaging, irrespective of network topology or non-IID data distributions. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that our approach enables gossip learning to achieve convergence efficiency comparable to that of federated learning.